Structure of Aspergillus flavus populations associated with maize in Greece, Spain, and Serbia: Implications for aflatoxin biocontrol on a regional scale.

Aspergillus flavus is the most frequently identified producer of aflatoxins. Non-aflatoxigenic members of the A. flavus L strains are used in various continents as active ingredients of bioprotectants directed at preventing aflatoxin contamination by competitive displacement of aflatoxin producers. The current research examined the genetic diversity of A. flavus L strain across southern Europe to gain insights into the population structure and evolution of this species and to evaluate the prevalence of genotypes closely related to MUCL54911, the active ingredient of AF-X1. A total of 2173L strain isolates recovered from maize collected across Greece, Spain, and Serbia in 2020 and 2021 were subjected to simple sequence repeat (SSR) genotyping. The analysis revealed high diversity within and among countries and dozens of haplotypes shared. Linkage disequilibrium analysis indicated asexual reproduction and clonal evolution of A. flavus L strain resident in Europe. Moreover, haplotypes closely related to MUCL54911 were found to belong to the same vegetative compatibility group (VCG) IT006 and were relatively common in all three countries. The results indicate that IT006 is endemic to southern Europe and may be utilized as an aflatoxin mitigation tool for maize across the region without concern for potential adverse impacts associated with the introduction of an exotic microorganism.

Changing climate, shifting mycotoxins: A comprehensive review of climate change impact on mycotoxin contamination.

Climate change (CC) is a complex phenomenon that has the potential to significantly alter marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Global warming of 2°C is expected to be exceeded during the 21st century, and the frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, storms, droughts, extreme temperatures, and wildfires, has intensified globally over recent decades, differently affecting areas of the world. How CC may impact multiple food safety hazards is increasingly evident, with mycotoxin contamination in particular gaining in prominence. Research focusing on CC effects on mycotoxin contamination in edible crops has developed considerably throughout the years. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive literature search to collect available studies in the scientific literature published between 2000 and 2023. The selected papers highlighted how warmer temperatures are enabling the migration, introduction, and mounting abundance of thermophilic and thermotolerant fungal species, including those producing mycotoxins. Certain mycotoxigenic fungal species, such as Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium graminearum, are expected to readily acclimatize to new conditions and could become more aggressive pathogens. Furthermore, abiotic stress factors resulting from CC are expected to weaken the resistance of host crops, rendering them more vulnerable to fungal disease outbreaks. Changed interactions of mycotoxigenic fungi are likewise expected, with the effect of influencing the prevalence and co-occurrence of mycotoxins in the future. Looking ahead, future research should focus on improving predictive modeling, expanding research into different pathosystems, and facilitating the application of effective strategies to mitigate the impact of CC.

IoT for Monitoring Fungal Growth and Ochratoxin A Development in Grapes Solar Drying in Tunnel and in Open Air.

Optimisation of solar drying to reduce fungal growth and Ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination is a crucial concern in raisin and currant production. Stochastic and deterministic analysis has been utilized to investigate environmental indicators and drying characteristics. The analysis was performed using two seedless grape varieties (Crimson-red and Thompson-white) that were artificially inoculated with Aspergillus carbonarius during open-air and tunnel drying. Air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) were measured and analysed during the drying experiment, along with grape surface temperature (Ts), and water activity (aw). The grape moisture content, fungal colonization, and OTA contamination were estimated, along with the water diffusivity (Deff) and peel resistance (rpeel) to water transfer. Monitoring the surface temperature of grapes is essential in the early detection of fungal growth and OTA contamination. As surface temperature should be carried out continuously, remote sensing protocols, such as infrared sensors, provide the most efficient means to achieve this. Furthermore, data collection and analysis could be conducted through the Internet of Things (IoT), thereby enabling effortless accessibility. The average Ts of the grapes was 6.5% higher in the tunnel than in the open-air drying. The difference between the RH of air and that in the plastic crates was 16.26-17.22%. In terms of CFU/mL, comparison between white and red grapes in the 2020 and 2021 experiments showed that the red grapes exhibited significantly higher values than the white grapes. Specifically, the values for red grapes were 4.3 in 2021 to 3.4 times in 2020 higher compared to the white grapes. On the basis of the conducted analysis, it was concluded that tunnel drying provided some advantages over open-air drying, provided that hygienic and managerial requirements are met.

Metabolomics Insight into the Variety-Mediated Responses to Aspergillus carbonarius Infection in Grapevine Berries.

Limited knowledge regarding the susceptibility of grape varieties to ochratoxin A (OTA)-producing fungi is available to date. This study aimed to investigate the susceptibility of different grape varieties to Aspergillus carbonarius concerning OTA contamination and modulation at the metabolome level. Six grape varieties were selected, sampled at early veraison and ripening, artificially inoculated with A. carbonarius, and incubated at two temperature regimes. Significant differences were observed across cultivars, with Barbera showing the highest incidence of moldy berries (around 30%), while Malvasia and Ortrugo showed the lowest incidence (about 2%). OTA contamination was the lowest in Ortrugo and Malvasia, and the highest in Croatina, although it was not significantly different from Barbera, Merlot, and Sauvignon Blanc. Fungal development and mycotoxin production changed with grape variety; the sugar content in berries could also have played a role. Unsupervised multivariate statistical analysis from metabolomic fingerprints highlighted cultivar-specific responses, although a more generalized response was observed by supervised OPLS-DA modeling. An accumulation of nitrogen-containing compounds (alkaloids and glucosinolates), phenylpropanoids, and terpenoids, in addition to phytoalexins, was observed in all samples. A broader modulation of the metabolome was observed in white grapes, which were less contaminated by OTA. Jasmonates and oxylipins were identified as critical upstream modulators in metabolomic profiles. A direct correlation between the plant defense machinery and OTA was not observed, but the information was acquired and can contribute to optimizing preventive actions.

Abstracts of Presentations to the Working Session on Improving Predictive Modeling of Mycotoxin Risk for Africa Held at the 3rd ASM2022 on 7 September 2022, in Stellenbosch, South Africa.

In 2008, the African Postharvest Losses Information Systems project (APHLIS, accessed on 6 September 2022) developed an algorithm for estimating the scale of cereal postharvest losses (PHLs). The relevant scientific literature and contextual information was used to build profiles of the PHLs occurring along the value chains of nine cereal crops by country and province for 37 sub-Saharan African countries. The APHLIS provides estimates of PHL figures where direct measurements are not available. A pilot project was subsequently initiated to explore the possibility of supplementing these loss estimates with information on the aflatoxin risk. Using satellite data on drought and rainfall, a time series of agro-climatic aflatoxin risk warning maps for maize was developed covering the countries and provinces of sub-Saharan Africa. The agro-climatic risk warning maps for specific countries were shared with mycotoxin experts from those countries for review and comparison with their aflatoxin incidence datasets. The present Work Session was a unique opportunity for African food safety mycotoxins experts, as well as other international experts, to meet and deepen the discussion about prospects for using their experience and their data to validate and improve agro-climatic risk modeling approaches.

Multiple Year Influences of the Aflatoxin Biocontrol Product AF-X1 on the A. flavus Communities Associated with Maize Production in Italy.

AF-X1 is a commercial aflatoxin biocontrol product containing the non-aflatoxigenic (AF-) strain of Aspergillus flavus MUCL54911 (VCG IT006), endemic to Italy, as an active ingredient. The present study aimed to evaluate the long-term persistence of VCG IT006 in the treated fields, and the multi-year influence of the biocontrol application on the A. flavus population. Soil samples were collected in 2020 and 2021 from 28 fields located in four provinces in north Italy. A vegetative compatibility analysis was conducted to monitor the occurrence of VCG IT006 on the total of the 399 isolates of A. flavus that were collected. IT006 was present in all the fields, mainly in the fields treated for 1 yr or 2 consecutive yrs (58% and 63%, respectively). The densities of the toxigenic isolates, detected using the aflR gene, were 45% vs. 22% in the untreated and treated fields, respectively. After displacement via the AF- deployment, a variability from 7% to 32% was noticed in the toxigenic isolates. The current findings support the long-term durability of the biocontrol application benefits without deleterious effects on each fungal population. Nevertheless, based on the current results, as well as on previous studies, the yearly applications of AF-X1 to Italian commercial maize fields should continue.

From Grapes to Wine: Impact of the Vinification Process on Ochratoxin A Contamination.

Ochratoxin A (OTA) is one of the major mycotoxins, classified as "potentially carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2B) by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and wine is one of its main sources of intake in human consumption. The main producer of this toxin is Aspergillus carbonarius, a fungus that contaminates grapes early in the growing season. The vinification process, as a whole, reduces the toxin content in wine compared to the grapes; however, not all vinification steps contribute equally to this reduction. During the maceration phase in red wines, toxin concentrations generally tend to increase. Based on previous studies, this review provides an overview of how each step of the vinification process influences the final OTA contamination in wine. Moreover, certain physical, chemical, and microbiological post-harvest strategies are useful in reducing OTA levels in wine. Among these, the use of fining agents, such as gelatin, egg albumin, and bentonite, must be considered. Therefore, this review describes the fate of OTA during the winemaking process, including quantitative data when available, and highlights actions able to reduce the final OTA level in wine.

DEFHAZ: A Mechanistic Weather-Driven Predictive Model for Diaporthe eres Infection and Defective Hazelnut Outbreaks.

The browning of the internal tissues of hazelnut kernels, which are visible when the nuts are cut in half, as well as the discolouration and brown spots on the kernel surface, are important defects that are mainly attributed to Diaporthe eres. The knowledge regarding the Diaporthe eres infection cycle and its interaction with hazelnut crops is incomplete. Nevertheless, we developed a mechanistic model called DEFHAZ. We considered georeferenced data on the occurrence of hazelnut defects from 2013 to 2020 from orchards in the Caucasus region and Turkey, supported by meteorological data, to run and validate the model. The predictive model inputs are the hourly meteorological data (air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall), and the model output is the cumulative index (Dh-I), which we computed daily during the growing season till ripening/harvest time. We established the probability function, with a threshold of 1% of defective hazelnuts, to define the defect occurrence risk. We compared the predictions at early and full ripening with the observed data at the corresponding crop growth stages. In addition, we compared the predictions at early ripening with the defects observed at full ripening. Overall, the correct predictions were >80%, with <16% false negatives, which confirmed the model accuracy in predicting hazelnut defects, even in advance of the harvest. The DEFHAZ model could become a valuable support for hazelnut stakeholders.

Electronic Nose for the Rapid Detection of Deoxynivalenol in Wheat Using Classification and Regression Trees.

Mycotoxin represents a significant concern for the safety of food and feed products, and wheat represents one of the most susceptible crops. To manage this issue, fast, reliable, and low-cost test methods are needed for regulated mycotoxins. This study aimed to assess the potential use of the electronic nose for the early identification of wheat samples contaminated with deoxynivalenol (DON) above a fixed threshold. A total of 214 wheat samples were collected from commercial fields in northern Italy during the periods 2014−2015 and 2017−2018 and analyzed for DON contamination with a conventional method (GC-MS) and using a portable e-nose "AIR PEN 3" (Airsense Analytics GmbH, Schwerin, Germany), equipped with 10 metal oxide sensors for different categories of volatile substances. The Machine Learning approach "Classification and regression trees" (CART) was used to categorize samples according to four DON contamination thresholds (1750, 1250, 750, and 500 µg/kg). Overall, this process yielded an accuracy of >83% (correct prediction of DON levels in wheat samples). These findings suggest that the e-nose combined with CART can be an effective quick method to distinguish between compliant and DON-contaminated wheat lots. Further validation including more samples above the legal limits is desirable before concluding the validity of the method.

Lipid Signaling Modulates the Response to Fumonisin Contamination and Its Source, Fusarium verticillioides, in Maize.

Fumonisin-contaminated maize (Zea mays L.) products are a major health concern because of their toxic effects in humans and animals. Breeding maize for increased mycotoxin resistance is one of the key sustainable strategies for mitigating the effects of fumonisin contamination. Recent studies suggest a link between fumonisin accumulation and plant lipid and oxylipin profiles. However, the data collected so far do not reveal a cause-and-effect relationship. In this study, to decipher the multifactorial nature of mycotoxin resistance and plant-pathogen interaction mechanisms, we examined the oxylipin and complex lipid profiles of two maize hybrids (H21 and H22, the latter showing significantly lower FBs content) grown in the open field in two locations over 3years. Untargeted ultra-high performance liquid chromatography coupled with quadrupole-time-of-flight (UHPLC-Q-TOF), together with chemometrics analysis, successfully distinguished between the two hybrids as having low- and high-level fumonisin contamination. Considering that H21 and H22 were exposed to the same environmental factors, the higher activation of lipid signaling systems in H22 suggests that other routes are enabled in the less susceptible hybrids to limit fumonisin B (FB) accumulation. Our results highlighted the crucial role played by oxylipin and sphingolipid signaling in modulating the complex maize response to F. verticillioides infection. Overall, our results returned a global view on the changes in lipid metabolites related to fumonisin accumulation under open field conditions, and revealed a strong activation of the lipid signaling cascade in maize in the presence of FB1.

Fusarium verticillioides and Aspergillus flavus Co-Occurrence Influences Plant and Fungal Transcriptional Profiles in Maize Kernels and In Vitro.

Climate change will increase the co-occurrence of Fusarium verticillioides and Aspergillus flavus, along with their mycotoxins, in European maize. In this study, the expression profiles of two pathogenesis-related (PR) genes and four mycotoxin biosynthetic genes, FUM1 and FUM13, fumonisin pathway, and aflR and aflD, aflatoxin pathway, as well as mycotoxin production, were examined in kernels and in artificial medium after a single inoculation with F. verticillioides or A. flavus or with the two fungi in combination. Different temperature regimes (20, 25 and 30 °C) over a time-course of 21 days were also considered. In maize kernels, PR genes showed the strongest induction at 25 °C in the earlier days post inoculation (dpi)with both fungi inoculated singularly. A similar behaviour was maintained with fungi co-occurrence, but with enhanced defence response at 9 dpi under 20 °C. Regarding FUM genes, in the kernels inoculated with F. verticillioides the maximal transcript levels occurred at 6 dpi at 25 °C. At this temperature regime, expression values decreased with the co-occurrence of A. flavus, where the highest gene induction was detected at 20 °C. Similar results were observed in fungi grown in vitro, whilst A. flavus presence determined lower levels of expression along the entire time-course. As concerns afl genes, considering both A. flavus alone and in combination, the most elevated transcript accumulation occurred at 30 °C during all time-course both in infected kernels and in fungi grown in vitro. Regarding mycotoxin production, no significant differences were found among temperatures for kernel contamination, whereas in vitro the highest production was registered at 25 °C for aflatoxin B1 and at 20 °C for fumonisins in the case of single inoculation. In fungal co-occurrence, both mycotoxins resulted reduced at all the temperatures considered compared to the amount produced with single inoculation.

Overall Exposure of European Adult Population to Mycotoxins by Statistically Modelled Biomonitoring Data.

This study presents the exposure scenario to mycotoxins of adult population throughout Europe. The urinary biomarkers values were obtained by modelling data from two European projects. Exposure to AFB1, OTA, CIT, FBs, DON, NIV and T2/HT2 are presented. The main output obtained refers to a concern for public health about AFM1, FBs, T2/HT2 and NIV, and low concern for OTA, DON and CIT. The margin of exposure for AFM1 did not respect the reference value of 10,000 considered of low priority for risk; for Fusarium toxins, FBs and T2/HT2, probable daily intake (PDI) values resulted about ten times higher than their tolerable daily intake and NIV presented the most critical situation with a calculated PDI 30 times higher than the reference TDI value. North and South Europe scenarios were also depicted by clustering biomonitoring data. OTA and DON showed to be prevalent in Northern countries and the opposite was noticed for ZEN, higher in Southern countries. The critical issues of the availability of records feeding the dataset and of the accuracy of excretion rate for some mycotoxins are source of uncertainty for the reliability of the outputs, nevertheless the time is ripe for asking for more concrete HBM values and/or HBM-HBGV which would help in interpreting the burden of mycotoxins in Europe.

Key Global Actions for Mycotoxin Management in Wheat and Other Small Grains.

Mycotoxins in small grains are a significant and long-standing problem. These contaminants may be produced by members of several fungal genera, including Alternaria, Aspergillus, Fusarium, Claviceps, and Penicillium. Interventions that limit contamination can be made both pre-harvest and post-harvest. Many problems and strategies to control them and the toxins they produce are similar regardless of the location at which they are employed, while others are more common in some areas than in others. Increased knowledge of host-plant resistance, better agronomic methods, improved fungicide management, and better storage strategies all have application on a global basis. We summarize the major pre- and post-harvest control strategies currently in use. In the area of pre-harvest, these include resistant host lines, fungicides and their application guided by epidemiological models, and multiple cultural practices. In the area of post-harvest, drying, storage, cleaning and sorting, and some end-product processes were the most important at the global level. We also employed the Nominal Group discussion technique to identify and prioritize potential steps forward and to reduce problems associated with human and animal consumption of these grains. Identifying existing and potentially novel mechanisms to effectively manage mycotoxin problems in these grains is essential to ensure the safety of humans and domesticated animals that consume these grains.

Environmental Conditions Affecting Ochratoxin A during Solar Drying of Grapes: The Case of Tunnel and Open Air-Drying.

Drying optimization, to mitigate fungal growth and Ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination is a key topic for raisin and currant production. Specific indicators of environmental conditions and drying properties were analyzed using two seedless grape varieties (Crimson-red and Thompson-white), artificially inoculated with Aspergillus carbonarius under open air and tunnel drying. The air temperature (T), relative humidity, grape surface temperature (Ts) and water activity throughout the drying experiment, the grapes' moisture content and the fungal colonization and OTA contamination during the drying process and their interactions were recorded and critically analyzed. Drying properties such as the water diffusivity (Deff) and peel resistance to water transfer were estimated. The grapes Ts was 5-7 °C higher in tunnel vs. open air-drying; the infected grapes had higher maximum Ts vs. the control (around 4-6 °C). OTA contamination was higher in tunnel vs. open air-dried grapes, but fungal colonies showed the opposite trend. The Deff was higher in tunnel than in the open air-drying by 54%; the infected grapes had more than 70% higher Deff than the control, differences explained by factors affecting the water transport. This study highlighted CFU and OTA indicators that affect the water availability between red and white grapes during open air and tunnel drying, estimated by the Deff and peel resistance. This raises new issues for future research.

Machine Learning for Predicting Mycotoxin Occurrence in Maize.

Meteorological conditions are the main driving variables for mycotoxin-producing fungi and the resulting contamination in maize grain, but the cropping system used can mitigate this weather impact considerably. Several researchers have investigated cropping operations' role in mycotoxin contamination, but these findings were inconclusive, precluding their use in predictive modeling. In this study a machine learning (ML) approach was considered, which included weather-based mechanistic model predictions for AFLA-maize and FER-maize [predicting aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and fumonisins (FBs), respectively], and cropping system factors as the input variables. The occurrence of AFB1 and FBs in maize fields was recorded, and their corresponding cropping system data collected, over the years 2005-2018 in northern Italy. Two deep neural network (DNN) models were trained to predict, at harvest, which maize fields were contaminated beyond the legal limit with AFB1 and FBs. Both models reached an accuracy >75% demonstrating the ML approach added value with respect to classical statistical approaches (i.e., simple or multiple linear regression models). The improved predictive performance compared with that obtained for AFLA-maize and FER-maize was clearly demonstrated. This coupled to the large data set used, comprising a 13-year time series, and the good results for the statistical scores applied, together confirmed the robustness of the models developed here.

Predicted Aflatoxin B1 Increase in Europe Due to Climate Change: Actions and Reactions at Global Level.

Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as "actions" because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB1 contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as "reactions" of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the "reactions" could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.

Ecology of Diaporthe eres, the causal agent of hazelnut defects.

Diaporthe eres has been recently reported as the causal agent of hazelnut defects, with characteristic brown spots on the kernels surface and internal fruit discoloration. Knowledge regarding the ecology of this fungus is poor but, is critical to support a rationale and effective hazelnut crop protection strategy. Therefore, a study was performed to describe and model the effect of different abiotic factors such as temperature (T, 5-35°C, step 5°C) and water activity (aw 0.83-0.99, step 0.03) regimes on D. eres mycelial growth, pycnidial conidiomata development and asexual spore production during a 60-day incubation period. Alpha conidia germination was tested in the same T range and at different relative humidities (RH = 94, 97 and 100%) over 48 h incubation period. Fungal growth was observed from the first visual observation; regarding pycnidia and cirrhi, their development started after 8 and 19 days of incubation, respectively and increased over time. The optimum T for growth was 20-25°C and for pycnidia and cirrhi development was 30°C; aw ≥ 0.98 was optimal for the tested steps of the fungal cycle. The best condition for conidial germination of D. eres was at 25°C with RH = 100%. Quantitative data obtained were fitted using non- linear regression functions (Bete, logistic and polynomial), which provided a very good fit of the biological process (R2 = 0.793-0.987). These functions could be the basis for the development of a predictive model for the infection of D. eres of hazelnuts.

Perspectives on Global Mycotoxin Issues and Management From the MycoKey Maize Working Group.

During the last decade, there have been many advances in research and technology that have greatly contributed to expanded capabilities and knowledge in detection and measurement, characterization, biosynthesis, and management of mycotoxins in maize. MycoKey, an EU-funded Horizon 2020 project, was established to advance knowledge and technology transfer around the globe to address mycotoxin impacts in key food and feed chains. MycoKey included several working groups comprising international experts in different fields of mycotoxicology. The MycoKey Maize Working Group recently convened to gather information and strategize for the development and implementation of solutions to the maize mycotoxin problem in light of current and emerging technologies. This feature summarizes the Maize WG discussion and recommendations for addressing mycotoxin problems in maize. Discussions focused on aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol, fumonisins, and zearalenone, which are the most widespread and persistently important mycotoxins in maize. Although regional differences were recognized, there was consensus about many of the priorities for research and effective management strategies. For preharvest management, genetic resistance and selecting adapted maize genotypes, along with insect management, were among the most fruitful strategies identified across the mycotoxin groups. For postharvest management, the most important practices included timely harvest, rapid grain drying, grain cleaning, and carefully managed storage conditions. Remediation practices such as optical sorting, density separation, milling, and chemical detoxification were also suggested. Future research and communication priorities included advanced breeding technologies, development of risk assessment tools, and the development and dissemination of regionally relevant management guidelines.

Molecular Characterization of Diaporthe Species Associated With Hazelnut Defects.

Fungi of the genus Diaporthe have been reported as the main causative agent of hazelnut defects in the Caucasus area. This study aimed to define which fungal species are present in defective hazelnuts grown in Turkey and confirm the role of Diaporthe spp. Seven hazelnut orchards were selected, with each one located in a different Turkish Province (Düzce, Giresun, Ordu, Samsun, Sakarya, Trabzon, and Zonguldak), and hazelnuts were collected at early and full ripening. Fungal isolation and identification were performed at the genus level based on morphological characteristics. Several genera were isolated, with Diaporthe spp. being among the prevalent. This was the only genus with increasing incidence from early to full ripening, and incidence at full ripening was positively correlated both with internal (ρ = 0.86) and visible defects (ρ = 0.81), which confirmed its role as the key causative agent of hazelnut defects. The correlation of defect occurrence with rainfall, reported in previous study, was not confirmed, possibly due to the low defect incidence. A total of 86 Diaporthe monosporic strains isolated from Turkish hazelnut samples, together with 33 strains collected in the Caucasus region and 6 from Italy, were analyzed with a multi-locus phylogeny based on three genomic loci (ITS, EF1-α, and tub). The results showed that Diaporthe strains can be grouped into 7 distinct clades, with a majority of Turkish strains (95%) being placed into a single clade related with D. eres. These samples were organized into several sub-clades, which indicates the existence of genetically diverse sub-populations.

AFLA-PISTACHIO: Development of a Mechanistic Model to Predict the Aflatoxin Contamination of Pistachio Nuts.

In recent years, very many incidences of contamination with aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in pistachio nuts have been reported as a major global problem for the crop. In Europe, legislation is in force and 12 µg/kg of AFB1 is the maximum limit set for pistachios to be subjected to physical treatment before human consumption. The goal of the current study was to develop a mechanistic, weather-driven model to predict Aspergillus flavus growth and the AFB1 contamination of pistachios on a daily basis from nut setting until harvest. The planned steps were to: (i) build a phenology model to predict the pistachio growth stages, (ii) develop a prototype model named AFLA-pistachio (model transfer from AFLA-maize), (iii) collect the meteorological and AFB1 contamination data from pistachio orchards, (iv) run the model and elaborate a probability function to estimate the likelihood of overcoming the legal limit, and (v) manage a preliminary validation. The internal validation of AFLA-pistachio indicated that 75% of the predictions were correct. In the external validation with an independent three-year dataset, 95.6% of the samples were correctly predicted. According to the results, AFLA-pistachio seems to be a reliable tool to follow the dynamic of AFB1 contamination risk throughout the pistachio growing season.